CNN Data Reporter Pinpoints Historical Polling Detail That May Doom Trump

CNN’s senior political data reporter Harry Enten on Tuesday examined the possibility that pollsters may be underestimating Republican nominee Donald Trump’s 2024 chances, as they did in 2016 and 2020.
It’s highly unlikely, Enten told “News Central” anchor John Berman.
“I went back and checked out whether or not a party outran the polls three presidential election cycles in a row in the key battleground states,” Enten said. “It’s never happened. It’s never happened. Zero times. Zero times since 1972.”
“So, if the polls are going to underestimate Donald Trump once again, that would be historically unprecedented,” he continued.
Some people would argue the former president “himself is historically unprecedented,” Enten acknowledged, adding, though, that pollsters typically catch on that they’re not “taking into account some part of the electorate” and make an adjustment to their predictions.
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“I think that helps to explain why we have never seen that the same party has been underestimated three times in a row in presidential elections, at least over the last 52 years,” Enten theorized.
Watch Enten’s analysis here: